13.10.25 - 17.10.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +9.7% | XAUUSD +3.55% | CORN +3.45% |
SPCE -5.28% | BRN -3.99% | FDAX -1.35% |
US indices have been trading mixed this week. They rebounded earlier in the week after having plunged on Friday due to the escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China. Nevertheless, they began to fall again after that. Uncertainty is rising after the US Congress failed to approve a budget again, resulting in the government shutdown continuing.
In the forex market, the dollar is falling against most other major currencies. Markets are especially interested in precious metals, which are a good alternative to fiat currencies in times of uncertainty. Gold hit a new all-time high when it rose above $4,300 per Troy ounce.
Brent crude oil prices dropped to around $60.40 per barrel. There are several factors putting pressure on the energy resource. One is the stabilisation of the situation in the Middle East, the OPEC+ countries' decision to continue gradually increasing production and trade wars that pose risks for the global economy.
Key events of the current week
| Canada. Inflation rate USD/CAD | DATE 21.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
TThe inflation rate in Canada remains below 2%. This allowed the central bank to cut its key interest rate at its last meeting with the aim of stimulating the economy. However, global analysts expect inflation to pick up pace to reach 2.2% in the reporting period. That means that the Bank of Canada will soon need to revise its monetary policy and pause its quantitative easing cycle. That would be favourable for the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD pair could return to 1.3970. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 22.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK remains high as a result of rising energy costs. Global analysts expect inflation to continue to rise and double the Bank of England's target rate. If the indicator moves in this direction, the regulator will not be able to cut its key interest rate in the short term. This will buoy the pound, especially since the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. In such a scenario, the GBP/USD rate could rise to 1.3520. | |||||
| Germany's Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD | DATE 24.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to show signs of cooling. Because the German economy is predominantly industrialised, manufacturing PMI data are particularly important. Manufacturing is having a difficult moment as many large manufacturers cut back on production and make staff redundant. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI has been in recession territory for a long time. Global analysts expect it to remain below 50 in the reporting period as well, which is bad news for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1600. | |||||
